IC Insights Forecasts Inflation Ease to 5.0% in July
Ghana’s headline inflation is expected to decline slightly to 5.0% in July 2026, according to economic research firm IC Insights, following three consecutive months of increases that pushed inflation to 5.3% in June.
The projected 30-basis-point drop comes as the firm anticipates easing inflationary pressures driven largely by lower global oil prices, declining domestic fuel costs and the appreciation of the Ghana cedi.
In its latest outlook, IC Insights said the sharp fall in global energy prices, with Brent crude trading just above US$70 per barrel, has effectively eliminated the geopolitical “wartime premium” that had previously supported higher oil prices.
The firm noted that the reduction in global fuel prices was quickly reflected in Ghana’s domestic petroleum prices during the second fuel pricing window in June, with the cedi’s appreciation further reinforcing price declines in the July pricing window.
According to the research firm, the favourable shift in energy prices is expected to place downward pressure on inflation, while the reversal of recent transport fare increases should also contribute to easing both non-food and headline inflation.
Despite the expected moderation, IC Insights cautioned that food inflation is likely to remain relatively elevated compared to the same period last year. It attributed this to the commencement of Ghana’s annual closed fishing season in July, which affects semi-industrial fishing vessels for one month and industrial trawlers for two months, potentially tightening fish supplies and increasing prices.
The firm also expressed concern over the impact of recent heavy rains and flooding on agricultural production ahead of the third-quarter harvest, warning that weather-related disruptions could sustain food price pressures.
“Against this backdrop, we forecast a 30 basis-point decline in the annual headline rate to 5.0%, while the sequential rate picks up slightly to 0.4% month-on-month in July 2026,” IC Insights said.
Ghana’s inflation rate climbed by 160 basis points to 5.3% in June 2026, marking the third straight monthly increase and the sharpest rise since late 2024, when food supply disruptions temporarily reversed the country’s disinflation trend.
Although June’s inflation outturn was broadly in line with IC Insights’ expectations, it came in 40 basis points below the firm’s forecast, suggesting inflationary pressures may already be easing as favourable exchange rate movements and lower energy costs begin filtering through the economy.
Source: Myjoyonline
Author: Joyce Owus
